This seminar will review the problem of multiple disparate estimates of mortality in Pacific Island populations being produced by a variety of governments and agencies, which appear to have increased overtime. These mortality estimates relate particularly to infant/child mortality (IMR, U5M) and life expectancy. Questions are raised concerning the confusion created for countries and agencies by multiple contradictory estimates for the same period (often up to 10 years for life expectancy), and the value for money obtained by funding agencies.

Underlying trends in mortality over decades for various Pacific Island states can be discerned by focussing on credible estimates produced using empirical data and appropriate methodologies. Although IMR and U5M show commendable declines, plateaux and declines in life expectancy due to premature adult mortality, probably from non-communicable disease(NCD), is evident in several countries. These trends are often disguised by multiple erroneous estimates. Some reasons for the variation in estimates will be presented.

Opportunities for research will be highlighted, especially involving secondary analyses of (available) data from censuses and surveys in Pacific Island states, and comparisons of findings from direct and indirect demographic methods with vital registration data from government Civil and/or Health sources.  

Richard Taylor is Professor of International and Public Health in School of Public Health and Community Medicine (SPHCM) at the University of New South Wales and founder and co-convenor of the MIPH program. He trained in medicine at University of Sydney, specialised in internal medicine in the US and UK, and then trained in tropical medicine and public health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. He has practiced in public health in Australia, especially in relation to cancer control, and in the Asia Pacific in relation to infectious and non communicable disease control. He was previously Epidemiologist at the South Pacific Commission (SPC), now Secretariat for the Pacific Community (Noumea, New Caledonia), and currently holds an ADRA grant on NCD control in Pacific Island states.